AmerCon : Asia

What Bush and Kerry Missed

Newsweek
Date: 2004 October 18
Fareed Zakaria

The West has long taken Asia for granted, seeing it as a stage where Great
Power rivalries could be played out. But this too will change.

Oct. 25 issue - The presidential debates are lauded for having been
substantive and revealing. In particular, people have noted how rare it is to
have a serious discussion about foreign policy these days. Except that we did
not have a serious discussion about foreign policy. We had one about Iraq.
And thousands of miles away, there is a new world coming into being-one that
America is quite unprepared to handle.

There have been two great shifts in the international balance of power over
the past 500 years. The first was the rise of Western Europe, which by the
late 17th century had become the richest, most dynamic and expansionist
part of the globe. The second was the rise of the United States of America,
which between the Civil War and World War I became the single most
important country in the world. Right now a trend of equal magnitude is taking
place-the rise of Asia, led by China, which will fundamentally reshape the
international landscape in the next few decades. For America, whether it is
preserving jobs or security, recognizing and adapting to this new world order
is key.

China's rise is no longer a matter of the future. It is already the fourth largest
economy in the world, and it is growing at three to four times the rate of the
first three. It is now the world's largest importer and exporter of many
commodities, manufactured products and agricultural goods. It will soon be
one of the largest exporters of capital, buying companies across the globe.

India is growing with impressive resilience and determination. And because of
its size, it adds another huge weight to the Asian balance. East Asia has now
been in a long boom for over 30 years. Asians are also the world's biggest
savers, and their savings have financed the deficit spending of the United
States. While there may be temporary reversals for a year or two, the
long-term trend is clear.

Take an important example: one of the reasons that the United States has
been able to dominate the global economy has been its awesome lead in
science and technology. But here too, Asia is gaining strength. From
computer science to biotechnology, one can see the beginnings of Asian
science. It's at a very early stage, but again, the arrow is moving in only one
direction. Physical Review, a top science journal, notes that the number of
papers it publishes by Americans has been falling dramatically, from 61
percent in 1983 to 29 percent last year. The journal's editor told The New
York Times that the main reason was China, which now submits 1,000 papers
a year.

With economic growth comes cultural confidence and political assertiveness.
The West has long taken Asia for granted, seeing it as an investment
opportunity or a stage where Great Power rivalries could be played out, as in
Vietnam and Korea. But this too will change. China and India are both proud
and ancient civilizations. They are also large internal economies, not totally
dependent on exports to the West. (In the wake of the East Asian crisis of
1997, all the East Asian tiger economies collapsed. But China and India grew
solidly even when demand from the West dried up.) This rise of confidence is
just beginning-it's clearly visible in trade negotiations-and will only grow with
time.

The United States will remain the most powerful country in the world. But the
gap between it and these new Great Powers will slowly shrink. And to
continue thriving, it will have to adjust to the rise of Asia. Asians should also
hope that America focuses on this new world, because only the United States
can ensure that Asia's rise happens in a way that is beneficial to both Asia
and the world. Otherwise, the challenge from Asia could easily produce a
retreat into fear, protectionism and nationalism all around.

In his novel "Cakes and Ale," Somerset Maugham derided the celebrated
American expatriate Henry James for focusing his writings on upper-class life
in Europe in the early 20th century. Maugham complained that James had
"turned his back on one of the great events of the world's history, the rise of
the United States, in order to report tittle-tattle at tea parties in English
country houses."

The analogy is not exact. The war on terror is crucial, winning in Iraq is
necessary, Middle East peace is important. But I wonder whether as we
furiously debate these matters in America, we resemble Englishmen in the
waning days of the British Empire. They vigorously debated the political and
military situation in remote areas, such as Iraq, Afghanistan and Sudan (some
things don't change). They tried mightily, and at great cost, to stabilize
disorderly parts of the globe. Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, the United
States of America was building its vast economic, technological and cultural
might, which would soon dominate the world.

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