The era of cheap oil is ending (production is nearing peak), oil is running out (there's only a
few decades of oil consumption remaining) and we aren't going to find much more.
The largest oil reserve in the world is held by Saudi Arabia, and it is only 260 billion
barrels ... barely enough to last the world 8 years at its current 30 billion-barrel annual
burn rate. Total worldwide proved reserves currently reported by the Department of
Energy's EIA is 1265 billion barrels -- an estimated 42 years' worth at current consumption
rates (although it will take much longer than 42 years to harvest efficiently, and there is
persuasive conjecture that several large fields are significantly over-reported; see here).
- One of the most important articles I've read on any subject is this Oil Depletion
Study (here). Published in 1998 by Scientific American, this article (written by Colin
J. Campbell and Jean H. Laherrère) remains the clearest and most complete exegesis
on Oil Depletion. The years have only confirmed and refined the analysis presented
here. (Colin J. Campbell later founded ASPO.)
- The ASPO 2004 calculations for the Peak Year Scenario are here. These
calculations currently place the year of peak oil and gas production at 2008.
- Richard Manning's tour de force exegesis in the February 2004 edition of Harper's
Magazine (here) makes clear the relationship between oil energy and food. Not
just electricity and the privilege of driving our automobiles is at stake; absent oil, basic
agriculture becomes profoundly more difficult.
- In the November 15, 2004 edition of Barron's, Charles T Maxwell reports (here) on the
first warning wave of oil shocks:
- Mr. Michael Rodgers, the senior director of PFC Energy (a Paris-based energy
consulting firm) reports (here in a September edition of the WSJ) that oil production
is either reaching a plateau or declining in 33 of 48 major oil-producing
countries, including six of the eleven OPEC countries. The PFC estimate of
peak-year will be sometime between 2010 and 2015.
Energy / Oil / Resources on this site
Energy / Oil / Selected Reading
PeakOil is here, and coal and nuclear and alternatives are not "solutions"
American Conservative / James Howard Kunstler
Newsweek / Fareed Zakaria
Common Dreams / Editorial from Minneappolis Star Tribune
Common Dreams / Michael T. Klare
Washington Post / Justin Blum
Washington Monthly / Kevin Drum
ASPO / Dr. Robert L. Hirsch / Report to DoE
Energy Bulletin / Nick Tattersall
Barron's / Charles T. Maxwell
Wall Street Journal / Jeffrey Ball
Washington Post / George Will
Scientific American / Colin J. Campbell, Jean H. Laherrèr
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