AmerCon : Energy : Coal

Energy / Coal

Oil and gas comprise 63% of America's total energy basket. To replace their energy
contribution at today's level of energy demand would require America to triple the amount of
coal she mines (from 1 to 3 billion tons per year), triple the number of coal power plants in
operation, and triple the number of nuclear power plants she has (from 104 to 312). Or find
and implement an alternative.

The U.S. gets 52% of its electricity from coal, and coal-fired utilities pull in some $350
billion in annual revenues. More than 75,000 miners dig 1 billion tons of coal out of the
earth each year in the U.S. (see here)

Coal-fired power plants are responsible for 60% of U.S. sulfur dioxide emissions, 33%
of U.S. mercury emissions, 25% of nitrogen oxide emissions, and more than 33% of
the nation's carbon dioxide air emissions. (ibid; here)

The National Mining Association predicts that 2004 will be a record year in coal
production, up 3.5% to 1.156 billion tons. Nearly all of that will go to produce
electricity, NMA says, noting that electric utilities will increase their use of coal by about
2%. (ibid; here)

The environmental considerations give pause (see Kyoto page here and global
warming page here) .

Can America pull 3 billion tons of coal out of the earth every year?

Within twenty years we'll be using coal to make fuel for mining equipment. How long can we
survive on coal?

The Department of Energy's estimate of recoverable coal reserves is 268 billion tons (see
report here).

At current consumption of 1 billion tons per year, with 2% increase per year, that would last
quite a while.

But without oil and gas we'll need to triple that quantity very quickly to 3 billion tons per year
(and triple the number of nuclear power plants we have). And the energy costs of using coal
will rise significantly because some of the energy of coal will be needed to manage coal's
greenhouse gases and other pollutants (carbon sequestration).

So we're down to 60-70 years very quickly. And that's using it all in America. If we don't
have a nuclear option, the numbers are worse.

I consider it likely that we'll want and need to share our coal with the rest of the world in some
politically and economically and spiritually sound way. The world has generously shared its
oil wealth with us.

Can we prudently estimate that we might have 45 years worth of coal before coal mining slips
into strong decline? The clock starts about 15 years from now when oil availability starts to
fall seriously short of demand.

Can coal carry us from 2020 to 2065?

We need to see a real national plan integrated with an international plan.

We need an invigorated and publicly-supported State Department and United Nations
working aggressively on this international energy plan.

And then what happens after 2060? Most people currently less than 20 years old will be
alive in 2060. What will be their legacy? Unless we know where we are going after 2060
(long before 2060) and start building toward that energy future now, our children will live in a
world where everything has been used up.

Because we have no idea -- other than fusion (which seems a pipe dream at this point and
we are steadily cutting funds for it) -- we need to start planning and working now.

ehj2